The UK and some European nations are set to breach the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran for the first time.
The countries are expected to confirm that they will not lift sanctions on Iran’s use of missiles this October, which is part of the agreement.
The US was taken out of the deal in 2018 by the then President, Donald Trump. But Germany, France and the UK continued to adhere to the deal, despite Iran responding to the US withdrawal from it by exceeding its agreed limits on the quality and quantity of enriched uranium.
The decision by the European powers to now breach the deal is a risk. It is hard to determine how Iran will respond – and it is a nation close to being able to manufacture weapons-grade enriched uranium. These countries have justified their stance by citing Iran’s own breach of the deal, its sale of drones to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine and the possibility that Iran may transfer ballistic missiles to Russia.
The head of the UN’s nuclear weapons inspectorate, Rafael Grossi , has stated that agreement on monitoring the Iranian nuclear programme has become problematic, with Iranian MPs objecting to plans to install about 10 security cameras at a centrifuge production workshop in the city of Isfahan.
The 2015 deal included a series of dates when various sanctions on Iran were due to be lifted. But since then the agreement has been widely breached, with Iran enriching uranium at 60% – well above the deal’s 3.67% limit. As a result, the deal’s future appears uncertain, despite talks in Oman between the US and Iran.
The decision not to lift sanctions would be significant, as it would reduce or even terminate International Atomic Energy Agency inspections that are ongoing in Iran. This would remove all transparency regarding Iran’s nuclear programme. This, in turn, may lead to Iran quickening the rate at which it produces highly-enriched uranium – or even abandoning its self-imposed missile range limit of 2,000 km (1,240 miles), meaning they could then reach Europe.
It should also be recognised by all parties that the current deal provides a platform to address all manner of tensions and threats not directly linked to nuclear matters, such as human rights concerns. It may, in the future, also help European companies regain access to sizeable Iranian markets, which may be particularly useful for those firms who had to give up their investments in the Russian energy sector after the invasion of Ukraine.
At this point, Europe needs to seriously think about the risk of pushing Iran towards closer relations with countries such as China and Russia, at a time when it has also re-established a relationship with
Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf. To lose oversight of Iran’s nuclear programme – and even the possibility of a more stable energy market – by rushing into action now could be damaging. There would be no turning back from such a stance. It may be more worthwhile to act in a way that could ensure more stable political and economic relations, rather than lose this possibility by trying to show how tough the West can be on Iran.
About the Author
Angelika Hellweger is the Legal Director at Rahman Ravelli. She works on cases involving environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues and coordinate work for international conglomerates.
