President Joe Biden signed a far-reaching climate, energy and health care bill1on Aug. 16, 2022, that invests an unprecedented US$370 billion in energy and climate programs over the next 10 years – including incentives to expand renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Rapid and widespread adoption of electric vehicles will be essential² for the United States to meet its climate goals. And the new law³, which includes a host of other health and tax-related provisions⁴, aims to encourage people to trade their gasoline-fueled cars for electrics by offering a tax credit of up to $7,500 for new electric vehicles and up to $4,000 for used electric vehicles through 2032.

But there’s a catch, and it could end up making it difficult for most EVs to qualify for the new incentive.

The new law, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, requires that new electric vehicles meet stringent sourcing requirements for critical materials, the components of the battery, and final assembly to qualify for the tax credits. While some automakers, like Tesla and GM, have well-developed domestic supply chains, no electric vehicle manufacturer currently meets all the requirements.

Building a domestic EV supply chain

At first glance, the revised EV tax credits seem like a smart move.

Existing U.S. policy allows credits⁵ for the first 200,000 electric vehicles a manufacturer sells. Those credits helped jump-start demand for EVs⁶. But industry leaders, including Tesla and GM, have already hit that cap, while most foreign automakers’ vehicles are still eligible. The law eliminates the cap for individual automakers and extend the tax credits through 2032 – for any vehicle that meets the sourcing requirements.

Right now, China dominates⁷ the global supply chain for materials and lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles. This is no accident. Since the early 2000s, Chinese policymakers have adopted aggressive policies⁸ that have supported advanced battery technologies, including investments in mines, materials processing and manufacturing. I discuss how China got a head start in the race toward a clean energy future in my new book, Charged: A History of Batteries and Lessons for a Clean Energy Future⁹.

Sen. Joe Manchin, the West Virginia Democrat who stalled earlier efforts to get these measures through the sharply divided Senate, said he hopes the requirements¹⁰ will help scale up the U.S. domestic critical minerals supply chain.

The EV incentives would complement other U.S. policies aimed at jump-starting domestic EV manufacturing capacity. Those include $7 billion in grants to accelerate the development of the battery supply chain allocated in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021¹¹ and a $3 billion expansion of the Advanced Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program¹² included in the Inflation Reduction Act.

The problem is that the Inflation Reduction Act’s¹³ sourcing requirements come online so quickly, starting in 2023, and ratchet upward so rapidly, that the plan could backfire. Instead of expanding electric vehicle adoption, the policy could make almost all electric vehicles ineligible for the tax incentives.

Even Tesla’s Gigafactory relies on China

The new law excludes incentives for any new vehicle which contains battery materials or components extracted, processed, manufactured or assembled by a “foreign entity of concern” – a category which includes China.

According to Benchmark Intelligence¹⁴, a market research firm that tracks the battery industry, China currently controls 81% of global cathode manufacturing capacity, 91% of global anode capacity, and 79% of global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity. By comparison, the United States has 0.16% of cathode manufacturing capacity, 0.27% of anode manufacturing capacity, and 5.5% of lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity.

Even the U.S.’s most advanced battery factories, such as Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory, currently rely on materials processed in China¹⁵. Despite Ford’s plans to expand its domestic supply chain, its most recent deals¹⁶ are for sourcing batteries from Chinese manufacturer CATL.

In addition to excluding materials and components sourced from China starting in 2023, the Inflation Reduction Act also requires that a minimum percentage of the materials and components in batteries be sourced domestically or from countries the U.S. has a fair trade agreement with, such as Australia and Chile. The threshold starts at 40% of the value of critical minerals in 2023 and ramps up to 80% in 2027, with similar requirements for battery components.

If a manufacturer doesn’t meet these requirements, its vehicle would be ineligible for the tax credit. Whether the Treasury Department would come up with exemptions remains to be seen.

Although EV manufacturers are already pursuing plans to develop supply chains that meet these sourcing requirements, proposals for mines and processing facilities often face challenges. Indigenous and environmental concerns have slowed a proposed lithium mine in Nevada¹⁷. In some cases, key materials, such as cobalt and graphite, are not readily sourced domestically or from fair-trade allies.

Proposed recycling projects could help meet demand. Redwood Materials¹⁸ projects its recycling facility, currently under construction in Nevada, will supply cathode and anode materials to support one million electric vehicles per year by 2025. Despite such optimistic projections, experts anticipate¹⁹ that recycling can only play a small role in offsetting the demand for raw materials needed to scale up electric vehicle adoption in the coming decade.

How much can the law do to cut emissions?

Clean energy supporters called the legislation historic²⁰. In addition to a massive investment in renewable energy and electric vehicles, it provides support for technologies such as carbon capture and storage and zero-carbon fuels, and includes a fee to curtail methane emissions²¹, as well as some trade-offs that boost fossil fuels²².

Forecasters have projected that the climate package as a whole could help put the U.S. on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 40% by 2030²³ compared to 2005 levels – still short of the Biden administration’s goal of a 50% reduction²⁴, but closer.

But for the U.S. to hit those goals, electric vehicles will have to replace fossil-fueled vehicles by the millions. A realistic EV tax credit that allows time for manufacturers to diversify their supply chains and makes these vehicles more affordable for all Americans will be crucial. The policy risks short-circuiting EV tax credits just when they are needed most.

The article was originally published in The Conversation on 08 August 2022 and was updated on 17 August 2022. https://theconversation.com/the-climate-law-could-short-circuit-ev-tax-credits-making-qualifying-for-them-nearly-impossible-188282

About the Author

James Morton Turner Researcher on the recent history of U.S. environmental politics and policy, including public lands, climate change, and science and technology. I received a B.S. from Washington and Lee University in 1995, an A.M. in American Civilization from Brown University in 1996, a Ph.D. in History (History of Science) from Princeton University in 2004, and a certificate in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton in 2005.

References

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